Effort != Results
People think that effort = results, that the more you work, the better the result will be. But if you have a bad idea, it doesn't matter how hard you work, you won't get results. It could also be bad luck.
But believing that effort will always result in better results does have good consequences. You will have more confidence. Believing wholeheartedly in randomness maybe doesn't allow you to push as hard because you have a built-in excuse. If you think that effort = results, you can keep pushing.
Is there a way to have the positive aspects of both?
Derek Sivers writes that sometimes it's useful to believe things that aren't true.
Use your work ethic to raise your confidence, but still know when to quit.