This all sort of implies that celebrations depend (solely) on exceeding base rates of success, which is kind of a cold, numeric way of looking at celebrations.
In terms of: "As long as you didn’t do something stupid, graduating was inevitable."
"As long as you didn't do something stupid..." is a vague qualifier that can apply to almost anything.
* "As long as you don't do something stupid, you can bowl a perfect game."
* "As long as you don't do something stupid, you can hit 40 home runs in one season."
* "As long as you don't do something stupid, your Manhattan restaurant will survive beyond its first birthday."
"As long as you didn't do something stupid..." is an easy way to brush off individual circumstances as irrelevant even when they aren't. I'm aware of the base rate fallacy. But the base rate just isn't relevant if individual factors significantly alter the probability of success for an individual.
Prof Clayton Christensen talks in his book, Disrupting Class, about how the modern American education system is a failure for many students. It's not because students are stupid, but because it may not work well with a specific student's strengths and weaknesses. So, graduating is not really inevitable even if a specific student doesn't do something stupid.
Individual circumstances matter because base rates are often non-ergodic. Base rates (like how 75% of restaurants in Manhattan fail in the first year) are ensemble averages. But the time average for an individual can be different. Even if a person's first restaurant fails, subsequent restaurants may have better chances of success if the owner isn't financially ruined and learns from past failures. There's path dependence.
I would say a graduation can *feel* unimportant if it *felt* inevitable. But that doesn't mean it *was* inevitable. Here's a reframe...
A lot of things seem inevitable when we take life for granted. There's a reason people celebrate birthdays, bar mitzvahs, and holidays. They might also seem inevitable. On the surface. But a celebration can be a designated opportunity to reflect on a journey so far and an opportunity to prepare for a new phase of life. Because completing a phase of life is never entirely inevitable. Shit happens. And that's the problem I have with solely basing celebrations on exceeding base rates.
A base rate is about an ensemble. But a personal celebration is about an individual.
Base rates use ensemble averages that conceal the details of an individual person's journey. A journey of overcoming obstacles and attaining unique life experiences to reach a milestone a person may never have reached before (and may never reach again) - why is that not worth celebrating?
I don't think I agree with the examples that you gave at the beginning.
When Christensen says that the education system is a failure, is he saying that because a lot of students are failing? Or is he saying that students are graduating while still not learning anything? If it's the second, that's more evidence that you should not celebrate just because you graduated.
What's the basis for a celebration? I think it's if you accomplish something. Looking at the base rate is an easy heuristic to see if you did something out of the ordinary. Obviously individual context matters and people are free to celebrate anything they want to.
From my own experience, celebrating events that don't take effort cheapens the celebration. Maybe this is a good thing - maybe it inures you against extrinsic motivation.
I wonder about rites of passage however. Rites of passage bestowed the privileges and responsibilities of adulthood. Because people used to go through physical and mental hardships, they feel they earn the right to live their own lives. Now, most rites of passage are time based and it seems that people are slow to take responsibility for their own lives.
I think he was discussing why some students are failing while others succeed. The ideal education system would be one in which every student can learn everything they need to, to the same degree of competency, in the same amount of time. But we don't live in an ideal world. And that's a huge, separate topic for another day.
re: the basis for celebrations
I think we both agree that effort matters. So, in that sense, a graduation celebration is less about graduating, per se. It's more about what graduation represents. I'll give you a personal example.
I didn't really celebrate my high school graduation. It felt "inevitable" (like you said) because I was a high-B-low-A-student and the high school journey wasn't particularly hard. University was a bit different for *me*.
I started off failing 3 courses. I was put on academic probation (i.e. almost kicked out) and I didn't think I'd graduate at all - let alone from an engineering program. But I changed my study habits, worked my butt off, cleared my probation status, and yes, I graduated. My university graduation was still one of the happiest moments of my life. And I'm not convinced I would've graduated if I didn't put in the effort regardless of base rates.
So, yes, I agree that I wouldn't celebrate "just because" I graduated. For me, the celebration is definitely more about what the graduation represents - the effort taken to get there. Because (and this is the point that maybe I got too hung up on) graduating may not be as "inevitable" as a base rate might suggest for an individual.
re: rites of passage
This is another can of worms, but... what's an example of a rite of passage that isn't time-based? A rite of passage is a ceremony that marks a stage of a person's life. So, aren't they always time-based? Maybe I'm missing something.
Edit: OK, I think I get what you mean about rites of passage. Although, some societies require military service. That sounds like more than just a time-based rite. But, yes, they're certainly uncommon. An exception than the rule.
This all sort of implies that celebrations depend (solely) on exceeding base rates of success, which is kind of a cold, numeric way of looking at celebrations.
In terms of: "As long as you didn’t do something stupid, graduating was inevitable."
"As long as you didn't do something stupid..." is a vague qualifier that can apply to almost anything.
* "As long as you don't do something stupid, you can bowl a perfect game."
* "As long as you don't do something stupid, you can hit 40 home runs in one season."
* "As long as you don't do something stupid, your Manhattan restaurant will survive beyond its first birthday."
"As long as you didn't do something stupid..." is an easy way to brush off individual circumstances as irrelevant even when they aren't. I'm aware of the base rate fallacy. But the base rate just isn't relevant if individual factors significantly alter the probability of success for an individual.
Prof Clayton Christensen talks in his book, Disrupting Class, about how the modern American education system is a failure for many students. It's not because students are stupid, but because it may not work well with a specific student's strengths and weaknesses. So, graduating is not really inevitable even if a specific student doesn't do something stupid.
Individual circumstances matter because base rates are often non-ergodic. Base rates (like how 75% of restaurants in Manhattan fail in the first year) are ensemble averages. But the time average for an individual can be different. Even if a person's first restaurant fails, subsequent restaurants may have better chances of success if the owner isn't financially ruined and learns from past failures. There's path dependence.
I would say a graduation can *feel* unimportant if it *felt* inevitable. But that doesn't mean it *was* inevitable. Here's a reframe...
A lot of things seem inevitable when we take life for granted. There's a reason people celebrate birthdays, bar mitzvahs, and holidays. They might also seem inevitable. On the surface. But a celebration can be a designated opportunity to reflect on a journey so far and an opportunity to prepare for a new phase of life. Because completing a phase of life is never entirely inevitable. Shit happens. And that's the problem I have with solely basing celebrations on exceeding base rates.
A base rate is about an ensemble. But a personal celebration is about an individual.
Base rates use ensemble averages that conceal the details of an individual person's journey. A journey of overcoming obstacles and attaining unique life experiences to reach a milestone a person may never have reached before (and may never reach again) - why is that not worth celebrating?
I don't think I agree with the examples that you gave at the beginning.
When Christensen says that the education system is a failure, is he saying that because a lot of students are failing? Or is he saying that students are graduating while still not learning anything? If it's the second, that's more evidence that you should not celebrate just because you graduated.
What's the basis for a celebration? I think it's if you accomplish something. Looking at the base rate is an easy heuristic to see if you did something out of the ordinary. Obviously individual context matters and people are free to celebrate anything they want to.
From my own experience, celebrating events that don't take effort cheapens the celebration. Maybe this is a good thing - maybe it inures you against extrinsic motivation.
I wonder about rites of passage however. Rites of passage bestowed the privileges and responsibilities of adulthood. Because people used to go through physical and mental hardships, they feel they earn the right to live their own lives. Now, most rites of passage are time based and it seems that people are slow to take responsibility for their own lives.
re: Clayton Christensen:
I think he was discussing why some students are failing while others succeed. The ideal education system would be one in which every student can learn everything they need to, to the same degree of competency, in the same amount of time. But we don't live in an ideal world. And that's a huge, separate topic for another day.
re: the basis for celebrations
I think we both agree that effort matters. So, in that sense, a graduation celebration is less about graduating, per se. It's more about what graduation represents. I'll give you a personal example.
I didn't really celebrate my high school graduation. It felt "inevitable" (like you said) because I was a high-B-low-A-student and the high school journey wasn't particularly hard. University was a bit different for *me*.
I started off failing 3 courses. I was put on academic probation (i.e. almost kicked out) and I didn't think I'd graduate at all - let alone from an engineering program. But I changed my study habits, worked my butt off, cleared my probation status, and yes, I graduated. My university graduation was still one of the happiest moments of my life. And I'm not convinced I would've graduated if I didn't put in the effort regardless of base rates.
So, yes, I agree that I wouldn't celebrate "just because" I graduated. For me, the celebration is definitely more about what the graduation represents - the effort taken to get there. Because (and this is the point that maybe I got too hung up on) graduating may not be as "inevitable" as a base rate might suggest for an individual.
re: rites of passage
This is another can of worms, but... what's an example of a rite of passage that isn't time-based? A rite of passage is a ceremony that marks a stage of a person's life. So, aren't they always time-based? Maybe I'm missing something.
Edit: OK, I think I get what you mean about rites of passage. Although, some societies require military service. That sounds like more than just a time-based rite. But, yes, they're certainly uncommon. An exception than the rule.
Yes, i totally agree about the effort. My base rate idea was just a clumsy way of determining effort level.
I was thinking like a vision quest or lion hunting or this:
https://mentalitch.com/learn-about-the-strange-and-unusual-satere-mawe-tribe-initiation/
Something that proves to yourself that you have the mental fortitude to overcome obstacles.